GAP's Passenger Traffic Sinks 5.5% in February as Hurricane, Cancellations Hit

Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacífico (GAP), Mexico's leading airport operator, reported a significant contraction in passenger volumes during February 2026, with total traffic across its 12 Mexican airport network declining 5.5% year-over-year. The pullback reflects a combination of operational disruptions, severe weather impacts, and broader softness in regional air travel demand, raising questions about the sustainability of travel recovery in Mexico and the Caribbean region heading into the spring season.

The decline marks a notable reversal from earlier momentum and underscores the vulnerability of regional aviation operators to both natural disasters and seasonal demand fluctuations. For investors monitoring $GAP and the Latin American aviation sector, the February results signal headwinds that may persist throughout the first half of 2026, with implications for both near-term earnings guidance and capacity planning strategies.

Key Operational Metrics Reveal Broad-Based Weakness

The February traffic decline was broad-based across GAP's Mexican portfolio, with several major gateways reporting substantial year-over-year decreases:

• Tijuana International Airport: Down 7.4% year-over-year
• Puerto Vallarta International Airport: Declined 5.3% year-over-year
• Guadalajara International Airport: Fell 1.6% year-over-year
• Montego Bay (Jamaica operations): Plummeted 31.4% year-over-year, primarily due to Hurricane Melissa impact

Beyond headline passenger counts, several efficiency metrics deteriorated markedly. Load factors—a critical measure of aircraft utilization and revenue productivity—dropped from 81.2% in February 2025 to 79.4% in February 2026, a 180-basis-point decline that signals airlines operated with less-full aircraft. This compression in load factors is particularly concerning because it suggests airlines are not reducing capacity proportionally to demand, instead absorbing losses on lower ticket yields and seat occupancy.

Adding to operational strain, available seat capacity contracted by 3.4% in the month, indicating some airline pullback, though not sufficient to offset weaker demand dynamics. Flight cancellations also disrupted service, particularly in Jalisco region on February 22-23, contributing incrementally to the traffic shortfall.

Market Context: Regional Aviation Under Pressure

GAP's February weakness arrives amid a challenging macroeconomic environment for Latin American travel. Mexico's tourism sector, which represents a significant revenue driver for regional airports, has faced headwinds from consumer spending pressures in both domestic and U.S. source markets. The 5.5% decline is particularly notable given that February 2025 was not an exceptionally strong comparator, suggesting genuine demand softness rather than merely difficult year-over-year comparisons.

The Hurricane Melissa impact on Jamaica operations, with Montego Bay down nearly one-third, highlights the structural vulnerability of Caribbean-exposed airport operators to seasonal hurricane risk. While Jamaica represents a smaller portion of GAP's overall portfolio, the 31.4% decline at that single airport demonstrates the magnitude of weather-related disruptions that can cascade through financial performance.

Competitively, GAP operates in a concentrated Mexican market dominated by larger national competitors and faces increasing competition from low-cost carriers seeking to expand regional routes. The combination of lower load factors and declining capacity suggests airlines may be reassessing route profitability at GAP's airport nodes, a potential precursor to further capacity reductions if demand doesn't stabilize.

Investor Implications: Revenue Headwinds and Margin Compression Risk

For shareholders of $GAP, the February results carry several material implications:

Revenue Recognition: GAP's business model is heavily volume-dependent, with passenger fees and concession revenue tied directly to traffic levels. A 5.5% traffic decline translates to meaningful revenue headwinds, particularly when combined with lower load factors that reduce per-passenger ancillary revenue potential.

Margin Pressure: Load factor compression to 79.4% suggests airlines are competing aggressively on pricing rather than capacity discipline. This dynamic typically pressures airport concession economics, as lower airfares reduce passenger purchasing power for retail services and food-and-beverage offerings.

Guidance Implications: The February print may force management to recalibrate full-year 2026 guidance. If the slowdown persists beyond February, annual passenger growth could track well below prior-year levels, impacting both EBITDA estimates and free cash flow projections.

Capital Allocation: Lower traffic volumes may argue for more conservative capital expenditure schedules on terminal expansion and infrastructure projects, potentially limiting future dividends or share buybacks if cash generation moderates materially.

Investors should monitor GAP's March and Q1 2026 reporting closely for evidence of demand stabilization. The 5.5% decline, while significant, may prove temporary if hurricane impacts recede and seasonal travel patterns normalize. However, the operational challenges evident in load factor compression and capacity adjustments suggest structural headwinds in the regional aviation market that could persist throughout the year.

The February data underscores that despite Mexico's strong tourism brand and geographic advantages, airport operators remain exposed to both macroeconomic demand shocks and idiosyncratic weather events that can rapidly erode volume and profitability metrics. For aviation-focused equity investors, $GAP now represents a higher-conviction play on a near-term demand recovery, rather than a stable income alternative in the Latin American infrastructure space.