Microsoft and Amazon: The Overlooked AI Giants Trading Below Historical Valuations

The Motley FoolThe Motley Fool
|||6 min read
Key Takeaway

Microsoft and Amazon emerge as undervalued AI plays within Magnificent Seven, with robust cloud growth and massive infrastructure tailwinds ahead.

Microsoft and Amazon: The Overlooked AI Giants Trading Below Historical Valuations

The Hidden Champions of AI Infrastructure

Microsoft and Amazon are quietly emerging as the most overlooked artificial intelligence stocks within the vaunted "Magnificent Seven," despite commanding dominant positions in the cloud computing infrastructure that underpins the entire AI revolution. While investors chase headline-grabbing AI narratives, these two tech titans trade at discounts to their historical valuations—a disconnect that savvy investors are beginning to recognize as a compelling opportunity. Their dual advantage of established cloud dominance combined with strategic undervaluation positions them uniquely to capitalize on the infrastructure buildout required to meet explosive AI demand.

The market's current fascination with pure-play AI companies and large language models has overshadowed the fundamental reality that someone must build and maintain the massive computing infrastructure upon which all AI applications depend. Microsoft and Amazon Web Services (AWS) are precisely those companies—the picks-and-shovels providers of the modern AI gold rush.

Cloud Growth Engines Accelerating

The growth metrics tell a compelling story of accelerating momentum in the foundational infrastructure layer:

  • Microsoft Azure demonstrated year-over-year growth of 39% in recent quarters, significantly outpacing broader cloud market expansion
  • AWS reported growth of 24% in Q4, reflecting sustained demand for computing resources and AI services
  • Both platforms are experiencing outsized growth in AI-specific workloads and infrastructure services
  • The infrastructure investment required to support AI development remains in its infancy, with growth trajectory still climbing steeply

These growth rates underscore a critical market dynamic: enterprises are not merely experimenting with AI—they are committing serious capital to build AI capabilities at scale. Every model trained, every inference executed, and every AI system deployed requires computing power that flows through Microsoft's or Amazon's cloud platforms.

The adoption gap further validates the growth thesis. Currently, less than 20% of businesses have implemented AI solutions into their operations, suggesting that roughly 80% of the potential market remains untapped. This represents an extraordinary opportunity for infrastructure providers positioned to serve the coming wave of enterprise AI adoption. As companies move from pilots to production deployments, their infrastructure consumption will accelerate dramatically.

Valuation Disconnect Creates Opportunity

Perhaps most intriguingly, both companies currently trade at discounts to their historical forward price-to-earnings ratios—a counterintuitive situation given their accelerating growth trajectories and commanding market positions. This valuation gap reflects a market narrative problem rather than a fundamental business problem.

Investor sentiment has become bifurcated: pure-play AI companies and specialized AI hardware manufacturers command premium valuations based on future potential, while infrastructure providers—despite generating the actual profits and maintaining proven business models—trade at depressed multiples. This creates a classic value opportunity for investors willing to look beyond the headlines.

$MSFT and $AMZN benefit from several structural advantages that justify higher valuations than the market currently assigns:

  • Entrenched market position: Massive switching costs and customer lock-in make their cloud platforms sticky
  • Recurring revenue model: Subscription-based cloud services generate predictable, growing cash flows
  • Margin expansion potential: As AI workloads scale, infrastructure efficiency improvements can drive margin expansion
  • Defensive characteristics: Unlike speculative AI startups, these are proven, profitable businesses with fortress balance sheets
  • Network effects: More users and developers build AI applications on their platforms, attracting even more users

Market Context and Competitive Landscape

Within the broader Magnificent Seven context, Microsoft and Amazon occupy a unique position. While companies like Apple ($AAPL), Nvidia ($NVDA), and Tesla ($TSLA) have captured investor imagination for various reasons, the infrastructure providers have been left behind in the current rotation.

Nvidia, despite its essential role in AI infrastructure, commands a significant valuation premium. Yet $NVDA's growth is ultimately constrained by the number of chips that can be manufactured and deployed. Microsoft and Amazon, by contrast, can scale their cloud services globally with software and virtualization—there is no manufacturing bottleneck limiting their expansion.

The competitive dynamics further favor these incumbents. While numerous startups are building AI models and applications, few have the capital, operational expertise, and established customer relationships necessary to compete effectively in cloud infrastructure. Google Cloud ($GOOGL) remains a significant competitor, but maintains a smaller market share. The concentration of cloud infrastructure among three major players—with Microsoft and Amazon commanding the lion's share—creates a duopoly-like dynamic that supports pricing power and margin sustainability.

Regulatory scrutiny has increased around AI, but infrastructure providers are more insulated from these concerns than pure-play AI companies. Microsoft and Amazon are positioned as neutral infrastructure providers, not AI companies creating potentially problematic applications. This regulatory arbitrage may prove valuable as oversight of AI intensifies.

What This Means for Investors

For equity investors, the thesis is straightforward: Microsoft and Amazon offer exposure to the AI megatrend at more attractive valuations than their valuation history suggests they should trade at, coupled with lower headline risk than pure-play AI bets.

The infrastructure investment wave ahead will be extraordinary in scale. Training a single cutting-edge AI model now costs tens of millions of dollars in computing resources. Deploying AI systems at enterprise scale requires massive ongoing compute capacity. Every AI startup building models, every enterprise deploying AI applications, and every developer experimenting with AI APIs consumes Azure or AWS infrastructure.

Investors who purchased Microsoft and Amazon years ago expecting AI to drive future growth are now seeing that thesis validate in real-time through accelerating cloud metrics. Yet the market prices in only a portion of the opportunity ahead. The 39% growth rate of Azure and 24% growth of AWS represent just the beginning of the infrastructure buildout cycle.

The discount to historical valuations provides a margin of safety while waiting for the market to fully recognize what is already happening: the AI boom is fundamentally an infrastructure play, and the two companies best positioned to profit from it trade at less demanding multiples than their growth rates and competitive positions justify.

Looking Ahead

As we head into 2026, the case for overlooked AI exposure through Microsoft and Amazon strengthens. The infrastructure buildout will accelerate, adoption of AI across enterprises will expand dramatically, and the market will eventually reprice these two companies to reflect their central role in powering the AI revolution. When that repricing occurs, investors who recognized the value in the picks-and-shovels approach will likely be rewarded significantly. For now, patient capital can establish positions in the companies most essential to the AI future, at prices that offer compelling value.

Source: The Motley Fool

Back to newsPublished Mar 15

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